The NFL is regarded as one of the most difficult sports leagues in the world to disability and with good reason. Each week, there is numerous examples of bets that look like complete locks, but for whatever reasonthey fall flat and suck money out bettor's bankrolls from the procedure.
Early in my career covering the sport gaming arena, it became amazingly obvious that there is no such thing as a lock -- especially when it concerns the NFL. If you dig deep enough, but there's a handful of spots in the NFL that are extremely reliable through time.
ThankfullyI have access to Decades Worth Of Information and uncovered a few extremely profitable gaming situations which may hopefully give us a bit of head start from the 2019 NFL season.
Can some of them fall flat? Yes. Will some be sustained? Absolutely. Will the gambling nerds of the net say this report is useless because trends provide no predictive value? Now that right there is??a lock!
Whether you purchase trends or not, these are spots that continue to pay outside, so let's dive in and investigate if there's logic to back up these:
Call it a Super Bowl hangover if you would like, however this awful listing for Super Bowl champions in Week 1 of the next season is likely the end consequence of them being overvalued according to their previous year's outcome. There is a whole great deal of turnover at the NFL out of season-to-season and many early season spreads are taking last year's data into account.
This is normally a premier matchup for its opening week of this season using the Super Bowl failure paired up with an adequate opponent, also in such 19 matches, the Super Bowl loser was just an underdog four occasions. So, yeah, you have the stage, the Super Bowl runner-up is frequently overrated early in the season based on their reputation from the season earlier.
Once you can bet it: In Week 1 of the season... or to be more particular, it is possible to fade the Rams Who Are At -3 In Carolina.
Virtually the entirety of this wonderful streak in primetime has been on Pete Carroll's watch while Russell Wilson was under centre for a huge chunk of these games. We can not correctly measure inspiration, but it is entirely possible that these are the kind of games that the long tail head coach/QB combo"get up" for. The fact that the Seahawks are one of their most consistent teams??during this decade also helps.
As for Wilson"becoming"?? for playing under the bright lights at primetime, think that his career QB rating during the night is 7.3 points greater than his generally late-afternoon begins. He also includes a better completion percentage, a greater touchdown-to-interception ratio, and most importantly, a better win percentage (81.4percent versus 65%) during the night vs the late afternoon.
Here's a breakdown of Seattle in night games in a few special scenarios:
- Night games in the home: 15-3-2 ATS since November 2017
- Night matches as an underdog: 11-2 ATS because December 2006
- Night games in December: 10-0 ATS since December 2011
- Nighttime games vs teams with winning records: 11-3 ATS since December 2006
When you can bet itWeek 5 TNF hosting the??Rams, Week 10 MNF in San Francisco, Week 12 SNF in Philly, Week 13 MNF hosting Minnesota, Week 14 SNF at LA Rams
What an embarrassment for Bills Mafia. Some may argue that this trend doesn't matter because it extends into well prior to the Brady-Belichick era, but it's actually a much better amount if you tighten it down to begin in 2000 if Belichick became the Patriots' head coach, since they've gone 14-4-1 ATS within this period.
Thus, what happens? Is this just due to the Patriots' historic domination of the league as well as the Adventures' continuous turnover in head coach and QB making them among their league's most elite skip fires? Largely, yes.
Specific the Belichick-era, the Patriots have a ridiculous 12 double-digit successes in Buffalo, but they've just been a double-digit favorite in several of the 19 games. They have been routinely undervalued and their league-best 60.8% ATS covering percent over the last ten years is proof of this.?? However, here's the thingthey have a winning ATS record across heaps of different spots, which is nuts considering they're the most elite dynasty in football history.
It was actually a struggle to pick only 1 situation in this report to highlight New England. Check out the other popular spots to the Patriots at the bottom of the Report.
When to wager itSunday, September 29 (Week 4)
This was an especially big money maker throughout the 2018 year when the home team went 10-3-2 ATS on Thursday nights. I think it's incredibly obvious why the house team has such an edge on Thursday nights, as the street team is traveling to a short week, putting them in an embarrassing position with time to prepare while recovering in the prior week at a resort.
Extending this tendency further, the home team went 71-53-6 ATS (57.3%) on TNF over the last 10 decades, so this has a long history of becoming a rewarding spot. If on Thursday nights, take the home team.
When to wager itI shouldn't need to tell you this
At first look, this seems more coincidental than anything else, but Dallas has performed considerably differently offensively on the street the previous four seasons. In 3 of the four years, there's a Fairly big disparity within their home/away scoring averages:
- 2018: 7 fewer things averaged in road games
- 2016: 5.8 fewer things averaged in road games
- 2015: 3.9 fewer points averaged in street games
We also have an identical pattern on defense with the staff doing better on this side of the ball out of Dallas in each of the past four seasons:
- 2017: 6 fewer things allowed on the Street
- 2016: 2.8 fewer things permitted on the road
- 2015: 10 fewer things permitted on the road
Going back to when this tendency starts on September 20, 2015, we have noticed Cowboys' home games have an average combined score of 46.10, although the average combined score in their road games falls considerably to 38.84.
Is the transition from the turf at Jerry's World to other playing surfaces the difference maker here? It appears to be a clear reason, but possibly their offensive groundwork for street games isn't on par with their prep for games.
In any event, keep an eye on their street totals throughout this season. Every matchup differs, but when their O/U amount for road games is on par with their averages in house games, I would strongly lean towards this trend continuing.
It's no coincidence that this record contrasts with the first season of Andy Reid's tenure as head coach of the Chiefs. He has a reputation as an unbelievable game planner and excellent coaches tend to know teams in their division very well.
The interesting thing about these games is the three ATS loses all came from the Raiders, although KC is a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 matches in Denver and San Diego/Los Angeles.
One concern??this season is that is the top Chiefs team coming to a season in the Andy Reid-era, so they can face higher than ordinary spreads, at least early in the season.
Short time or recovering by a Dark Friday fistfight at WalMart without a time to handicap the NFL Thanksgiving matches? Just take the favorites then and you are likely to walk off with a gain. Including the past two seasons if the preferred covered the spread in all six games, faves have been on a complete tear on Thanksgiving in 31-11 ATS since 2005. And this tendency is not just limited to the 2000s as favorites covering Thanksgiving is a long-standing tradition as they have gone 53-29 ATS (64.5percent ) as 1984.
You'd think dwelling teams could have a substantial advantage , as laid out at the TNF fashion previously, but home teams were favored in only over half of those matches since 2005, and just went 18-23 ATS.
In addition, these matches are interchangeable with ass-kickings, like the ones that we watch WalMart on Black Friday, as 32 of??51 games as 2000 were decided by double-digits.
This year's Thanksgiving games comprise that the Bears in Detroit, the Cowboys hosting both the Greens as well as the Saints seeing Atlanta.
Some teams have been slow starters and require a few weeks to get going along with the Saints are at the top of the listing of early-season underperformers.
In 2018, we saw them choke at Week 1 and lose to the Bucs as a 10-point favorite at home. The next week, in a different game, they hardly snuck by the Hugh Jackson and Tyrod Taylor-led Browns, winning by three as a 9.5-point favorite. They then went on to cover the spread in nine consecutive games after the tough start.
In 2017, we saw them fail to pay in the initial fourteen days, then go on to cover the spread six of the next seven games. In 2016they split the initial two, then covered five of their next six. In 2015they didn't pay in their first two matches, then coated in four of the next five.
The bottom line is that Sean Peyton has done a bad job in getting off to a fantastic beginning and Drew Brees also hasn't been sharp early in seasons, shown by his career September QB rating of 94.7 that is his smallest of any month.
When to bet itWith the Saints favored by a touchdown in Week 1 MNF Vs The Texans, along with a Week 2 rematch of last season's NFC Title game at which players are certain to play-up the revenge angle, these may be prime spots to once more evaporate New Orleans in early season games.
Pittsburgh has been playing down to poorer competition for nearly two years and has been particularly bad in this place recently, moving 0-5 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points since the onset of this 2017 season. Most importantly, they have been atrocious as a double-digit street favorite in this period, moving 1-10 ATS.
Mike Tomlin took as Steelers head coach in 2007 so many of the inefficiency as a significant favorite is about his watch. They have still been a winner in nearly all of these games, moving 22-5 under Tomlin, but they certainly underestimate poorer competitors, making them a great grin as a significant favorite.
Pittsburgh won't have as many chances as a double favored this season, especially now that the Browns are somewhat more aggressive -- they've been a double-digit favorite eight times vs the Browns at Tomlin's tenure as head coach but they could find themselves like a massive favorite in Season 4 at home to the Bengals and hosting the Dolphins in Week 8.
So, besides usually sucking on the last ten years, yet another thing that these groups have in common is playing at a very different climate. It's possibly the most apparent thing to handicap, with warm weather clubs playing outside of the comfort zones from the colder weather months, but it seems like oddsmakers are not accounting enough for this.
Miami is the most intense case from the three Florida teams in this area due to playing in a division with all the teams which are strongly affected by winter ailments. Going all the way back to 1992, they're just 3-10 ATS in New England in December and January games. Since 1990, they're 4-9-1 ATS at Buffalo in today, while they have managed to move 4-3 ATS at the Jets since 1996.
There is a bit of grey area here since I did not look at weather conditions to each of the groups in those games, however warm-weather city clubs that play outside are normally an awful bet when playing in cold weather.
Since 2014, there has been 82 games played in cold temperatures below 32??F (0?? C). Nineteen of those games involved warm-weather city teams who play outside (Jacksonville, Miami, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Tampa Bay, Oakland and San Francisco) and they went 6-13 ATS.
Here's just another piece of reputable betting spots Through the Years:
- Patriots: 35-14??ATS??at home over their last 49 matches
- Patriots: 16-5-1 ATS after a loss as October 13, 2013
- Patriots: 11-4-2 in divisional house games since October 2013
- Raiders: 4-21 SU in final 25 games with 1 PM ET start times
- Colts: 1-10 ATS in continue their 11 Week 1 games
- Browns: 2-19 SU in their last 21 at Pittsburgh
- Saints vs Bucs: UNDER in 15 of past 21 matchups
- Lions vs Vikings: UNDER at 16 of past 22 matchups
- Seahawks: 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs 49ers
- Panthers: 19-5-1 ATS after a road loss
- London Games: Favorite is 15-9 ATS
- Texans: 6-18-1 ATS in night matches since 2012
- Redskins: 5-16 ATS in nighttime matches because 2013
- Broncos: 75-20-2 SU at home in September because 1970
- Titans:??7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 off-road games
For more information like this every week during the NFL season, Follow Me About Twitter. Very good luck this season, and as always, KEEP CHASING THAT PAER!
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